by Andy Weddington
Wednesday, 09 November 2016
The poll that matters is the one that happens on Election Day. - Heather Wilson
The blunt, bold, breakdown you won't read anywhere else ...
This morning I sent a Tweet to the man of the Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato:
@LarrySabato - Lesson: Models and radar fine tools. But "weather rocks" - the people - foolproof. So, in future, stick your head outdoors.
I've not heard back. Nor is reply expected. Though, to his credit, he went public confessing not egg but omelet on his face. From his comments, sounds like he's going to stay in the business. Credibility will not be easy to restore. But there's a store nearby looking for a greeter. Worth considering.
As to models (and radar) ...
Twenty years ago, while a Headquarters Marine Corps action officer, I learned, and but quick, models (and their radar) are no better than the data populating them. Enter garbage in one model and not only will all (interconnected) models be polluted but likely polluted exponentially. And the output? Garbage!
So went the models of the forecasters.
What's a "weather rock"?
It's an out-of-doors tool that confirms weather. For example, dry and warm then sunshine; wet then rain; a layer of white stuff then snow. It is foolproof.
Savvy weathermen use weather rocks to validate models and radar.
This morning analyst after analyst head-scratching - dumbfounded by the election.
Not me. Last evening I poured cognac and sat back to enjoy exactly what I expected to see unfold. My disappointment? Twelve Electoral College votes short - 300 for Mr. Trump, I suspected.
The weather rocks - the people, amidst travel the past six months, told me.
Too, analysts and anchors and talking heads are saying in a questioning tone, "A man with no political experience is our 45th President," as if that in itself is some sort of crime.
Hello! Mr. Trump is representative government, as our Founding Fathers envisioned and codified in a sweet document we know as the Constitution. Read it sometime. Career politicians not their intent but is why we have the mess we have today. Mr. Trump vows to fix that, too.
On the analysts go ... blah, blah, blah.
They, to salvage jobs and reputations (good luck with that), are hard at work devising colorful and confusing charts and graphs with slick talking points and footnotes - all as alibi. Save it! They'll be no more valuable than the models and radar.
Where did the voters come from?
Some propose white rural folks.
My thought - a flashmob of sorts. Perhaps.
Some are zeroing in on the minority vote that supported Mr. Obama but sat this election out.
That is the wrong analysis. The minority populace voted - they cast for Mr. Trump (by not voting for Mrs. Clinton).
He caught their ear with "What do you have to lose?"
Contend that hypothesis, if you will, but it's as logical an inference as any. For a black President failed them.
What have we learned?
We learned any and everything on television, especially "news" and all politically themed programming, should be required by FCC regulation to flash viewer warning before, during, and after the program: FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY!
We learned, refreshingly, the citizenry-at-large is not one big fool.
We learned, from peon to President, a determined citizen can make a difference.
We learned, yet again, the map (models and radar) is not the territory. If you are a regular in this forum then you know that is in reference to a tenet of General Semantics.
We learned about ground games. The Clinton campaign bugled their superior ground game. And mocked the Trump "ground game" - on Twitter and other social media. Ground games are not ground games. Another deduction from General Semantics.
The "experts" blew their forecasts.
And they blew it for not paying attention to "weather rocks" - the people, and not walking the (right) ground. And for inputting garbage like hope and dreams and gender and "experience" into their models. They omitted deceit, mistrust, and privilege to name a few. So, they were destined to fail. And did. Big time!
President-elect Trump will take office, with great political power, over a broken country starving for direction and leadership.
He, a successful and fabulously wealthy businessman for incentivize(d) action plans based on objectives, milestones, measures of effectiveness, etc., is a man of action (not hope) proven to get things, big things, done. And so will be the Cabinet he selects and staff and advisers around him. For less, he'll not accept.
I have a forecast. A long range forecast - towards the end of this century. It's a long way off. I'll not live to see it. Some alive today just might.
Mr. Trump, for his miraculous achievement winning our presidency against all logic and odds, has already secured his place in history. And he has yet to start. But when he does sit the Oval Office expect productivity in every sense of the word. And a strong nation - a powerhouse; again.
Therefore, Americans in the last quarter of this century should not be surprised to see Presidents Reagan and Trump anchoring another quartet of Presidents - topping weathered rock somewhere. Not Rushmore but somewhere.
The service and contributions of these men, and two yet to be identified, irrefutable; that is when the time comes. Models and radar will prove it. Weather(ed) rock confirm - for visitors from near and afar.
There's so much more about the election but enough for now.
In closing ...
I am not a gambler. But many months ago a Marine, amidst our banter about the election, challenged, "Want to bet?" He, a retired politician (who never lost an election), was certain Hillary Clinton not beatable. I took that bet but clarified it must be gentlemanly - $1.00. We agreed.
This morning, without reminder, I received an email from him ...
"I owe you a dollar."
"I know," in reply.
I plan to rig a frame; as memory of the historic election.
Maybe it's just me, but there's a different feel in the air this morning - the feel of optimism and a splash of pride not felt in a long while.
I don't care who you are nor what you believe or feel about the election ...
Keep the faith!